Changes in Fertility Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Study of Russian Regions
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2023.2.2370Keywords:
fertility, pandemic, regions of Russia, proportional hazard models, birth ordersAbstract
The paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility in Russian regions. Our central hypothesis suggests that the pandemic conduced the postponement of childbearing because the socioeconomic uncertainty increased starting with 2020. We used the data from a quantitative survey of women of reproductive ages held in June-July 2022 in three regions of Russia (Republic of Dagestan, Kirov and Tver’ regions). The choice of these regions was justified by their differences in some relevant fertility characteristics in the pre-pandemic period.
The analysis using proportional hazard models (event history analysis) has shown that the pandemic was followed by a significant decrease in the probability of the second, but not the first births in these regions. Two possible explanations for this asymmetry of birth orders are suggested. One of them was based on the experience of earlier crises in Russia when the fertility of second children was more affected than that of the first children. Another possible explanation was based on the changes in Russia’s pronatalist policy measures implemented right before the pandemic.
Acknowledgements. The analysis of the survey results was carried out by E. S. Mitrofanova within the framework of RANEPA research program.
References
Блинова Т.В., Кутенков Р.П., Шабанов В.Л. Моделирование и оценка сельско-городских различий в динамике рождаемости населения России // Вестник Саратовского государственного социально-экономического университета. 2019. № 3. С. 73—77.
Blinova T.V., Kutenkov R.P., Shabanov V.L. (2019) Modelling and Analyzing Urban-Rural Differences in Fertility Dynamics in Russian Regions. Vestnik of Saratov State Socio-Economic University. No. 3. P. 73—77. (In Russ.)
Большунова Т.В. Феномен чайлдфри: макросоциологический анализ // Вестник университета. 2018. № 4. С. 145—149. https://doi.org/10.26425/1816-4277-2018-4-145-149.
Bolshunova T.V. (2018) The Childfree Phenomenon: A Macrosociological Analysis. Vestnik Universiteta. No. 4. P. 145—149. https://doi.org/10.26425/1816-4277-2018-4-145-149. (In Russ.)
Бурдяк А.Я. Применение метода «анализа наступления события» (event history analysis) с помощью пакета SPSS // SPERO. Социальная политика: экспертиза, рекомендации, обзоры. 2007. № 6. С. 189—202.
Burdyak A.Ya. (2007) Application of the Event History Analysis Using SPSS Package. SPERO. Social Policy: Expertise, Recommendations, Reviews. No. 6. P. 189—202. (In Russ.)
Захаров С.В., Сакевич В.И. Долговременные тенденции уровня рождаемости и проблемы ее контроля на внутрисемейном уровне в современной России // Население России 2019: Двадцать седьмой ежегодный демографический доклад / под отв. ред. С. В. Захарова. М.: Издательский дом Высшей школы экономики, 2022. С. 113—154.
Zakharov S.V., Sakevich V.I. (2022) Long-Term Fertility Trends and Problems of Family-Internal Fertility Control in Contemporary Russia. In: Zakharov S.V. (ed.) Russia’s Population in 2019: 27th Annual Demographic Report. Moscow: HSE Publishing House. P. 113—154. (In Russ.)
Казенин К.И., Ракша А.И. Динамика рождаемости по регионам РФ в 2018 г.: основные тенденции // Экономическое развитие России. 2019. Т. 26. № 8. С. 71—78. URL: http://www.edrussia.ru/archive/2019/880-08-2019 (дата обращения: 11.04.2023).
Kazenin K.I., Raksha A.I. (2019) Fertility Changes in Russian Regions in 2018: Key Tendencies. Russian Economic Developments. Vol. 26. No. 8. P. 71—78. URL: http://www.edrussia.ru/archive/2019/880-08-2019 (accessed: 11.04.2023). (In Russ.)
Ломакин И.В. Чайлдфри или добровольно бездетные? К переопределению концептуального поля исследований не-родительства в России // Мониторинг общественного мнения: экономические и социальные перемены. 2019. № 6. С. 394—436. https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2019.6.20.
Lomakin I.V. (2019) Childfree or Voluntarily Childless? Redefining the Conceptual Field of Studies on Non-Parenthood in Russia. Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes. No. 6. P. 394—436. https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2019.6.20. (In Russ.)
Митрофанова Е.С. (Не)время взрослеть: как меняется возраст наступления дебютных биографических событий у россиян // Демографическое обозрение. 2020. Т. 7. № 4. С. 36—61. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v7i4.12043.
Mitrofanova E.S. (2019) (No)time to Grow Up: Changing Ages of Debut Biographical Events in Russia. Demographic Review. Vol. 7. No. 4. P. 36—61. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v7i4.12043. (In Russ.)
Мкртчян Н.В. Миграция на Северном Кавказе сквозь призму несовершенной статистики // Журнал исследований социальной политики. 2019. Т. 17. № 1. С. 7—22. https://doi.org/10.17323/727-0634-2019-17-1-7-22.
Mkrtchyan N.V. (2019) Migration at the North Caucasus in the Mirror of Imperfect Data. The Journal of Social Policy Studies. Vol. 17. No. 1. P. 7—22. https://doi.org/10.17323/727-0634-2019-17-1-7-22. (In Russ.)
Середкина Е.А. Тенденции рождаемости в развитых странах в период пандемии COVID-19 // Демографическое обозрение. 2022. Т. 9. № 1. С. 109—146. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v9i1.14576.
Seredkina E.A. (2022) Fertility Trends in Developed Countries during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Demographic Review. Vol. 9. No. 1. P. 109—146. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v9i1.14576. (In Russ.)
Сток Дж., Уотсон М. Введение в эконометрику / пер. с англ. под науч. ред. М. Ю. Турунцевой. М.: Дело, 2015.
Stock J.H., Watson M.W. (2015) Introduction to Econometrics. Moscow: Delo. (In Russ.)
Фрейка Т., Захаров С.В. Эволюция рождаемости в России за полвека: оптика условных и реальных поколений // Демографическое обозрение. 2014. Т. 1. № 1. C. 106—143. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v1i1.1828.
Frejka T., Zakharov S.V. (2014) Fertility Trends in Russia during the Past Half Century: Period and Cohort Perspectives. Demographic Review. Vol. 1. No. 1. P. 106—143. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v1i1.1828. (In Russ.)
Adsera A. (2010) Where are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe. European Journal of Population. Vol. 27. No. 1. Р. 1—32. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-010-9222-x.
Boberg-Fazlic N., Ivets M., Karlsson M., Nilsson Th. (2021) Disease and Fertility: Evidence from the 1918—19 Influenza Pandemic in Sweden. Economics & Human Biology. Vol. 43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101020.
Chandra S., Yu Ya.-L. (2015) The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Subsequent Birth Deficit in Japan. Demographic Research. Vol. 33. Art. 11. P. 313—326. https://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2015.33.11.
Comolli Ch.L. (2017) The Fertility Response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United States: Structural Economic Conditions and Perceived Economic Uncertainty. Demographic Research. Vol. 36. Art. 51. Р. 1549—1600. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2017.36.51.
Emery T., Koops J. C. (2022) The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility Behaviour and Intentions in a Middle-Income Country. PLoS ONE. Vol. 17. No. 1. Art. e0261509. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261509.
Gerber Th.P., Berman D. (2010) Entry to Marriage and Cohabitation in Russia, 1985—2000: Trends, Correlates, and Implications for the Second Demographic Transition. European Journal of Population. Vol. 26. No. 1. Р. 3—31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-009-9196-8.
Goldstein J.R., Kreyenfeld M., Jasilioniene A., Örsal D.D.K. (2013) Fertility Reactions to the “Great Recession” in Europe: Recent Evidence from Order-Specific Data. Demographic Research. Vol. 29. Art. 4. Р. 85—104. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.4.
Lindberg L.D., Van de Vusse A., Mueller J., Kirstein M. (2020) Early Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings from the 2020 Guttmacher Survey of Reproductive Health Experiences. New York, NY: Guttmacher Institute.
Luppi F., Arpino B., Rosina A. (2020) The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility Plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Demographic Research. Vol. 43. Art. 47. P. 1399—1412. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2020.43.47.
Neels K. (2010) Temporal Variation in Unemployment Rates and Their Association with Tempo and Quantum of Fertility: Some Evidence for Belgium, France and the Netherlands. Paper presented on 17th of April 2010 at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (Dallas, Texas, USA). P. 1—38.
Rangel M.A., Nobles J., Hamoudi A. (2020) Brazil’s Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior. Demography. Vol. 57. No. 5. P. 1647–1680. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00900-9.
Sobotka T. (2008) Overview Chapter 6: The Diverse Faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe. Demographic Research. Vol. 19. Art. 8. P. 171—224. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.8.
Sobotka T., Skirbekk V., Philipov D. (2011) Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World. Population and Development Review. Vol. 37. No. 2. P. 267—306. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00411.x.
Sobotkа T., Jasilioniene A., Alustiza Galarza A., Zeman K., Nemeth L., Jdanov D. (2021) Baby Bust in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic? First Results from the New STFF Data Series. SocArXiv. March 24. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/mvy62.
Van De Kaa D.J. (1987) Europe’s Second Demographic Transition. Population Bulletin. Vol. 42. No. 1. Р. 1—59.
Vignoli D. (2006) Fertility Change in Egypt: From Second to Third Birth. Demographic Research. Vol. 15. Art. 18. Р. 499—516. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.18.
Zakharov S. (2008) Russian Federation: From the First to the Second Demographic Transition. Demographic Research. Vol. 19. Art. 24. P. 907—972. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.24.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes Journal (Public Opinion Monitoring) ISSN 2219-5467
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
