The Influence of Personal Factors on the Change in the Strategic Intentions of Small Entrepreneurs during Exogenous Shocks: Analysis of Longitudinal Data
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2025.4.2815Keywords:
small entrepreneurship, strategy, motivation, external shocks, longitudeAbstract
This article examines the impact of changes in motivation and business conditions on the strategic intentions of small business owners in response to external shocks. The empirical basis of the study is drawn from the FOM Small Business Longitudinal Survey (initiated in 2021, initial N = 768 individuals). The analytical methodology employs generalized estimating equations (GEE) to account for the effects of panel data fully.
The study reveals that for the majority of respondents, motivation remains stable, although their assessments of the external environment and business performance exhibit slight variability. Changes in motivation, whether from opportunity to necessity or vice versa, are not necessarily driven by changes in current business income but are strongly associated with the evaluation of the overall economic situation. A deterioration in the economic environment may lead to a shift in motivation from opportunity to necessity, whereas improvements can trigger a shift from necessity to opportunity motivation. Changes in motivation in both directions influence entrepreneurs’ strategic intentions, with a significantly stronger effect observed for negative transitions (from opportunity to necessity motivation). An increase in business income has a significant positive effect on changes in entrepreneurs’ strategic intentions, while a decline in income exerts a significant negative effect.
This study is the first to establish a link between changes in business owners’ strategic intentions and their assessments of changing business conditions, current income levels, and owners’ education.
Acknowledgements. This article was prepared within the framework of the project “Russian Small Entrepreneurship under External Shocks: Dynamics of Adaptation (a longitudinal study),” supported by the Center for Fundamental Research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (2024). The authors are also grateful for the valuable comments and suggestions received during the discussion of the preliminary version of this article at the Laboratory for Economic Sociology, HSE University, in February 2025, particularly to the discussant, Dr. V. A. Barinova (RANEPA).
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