Electoral forecasting in the USA: market players and understanding the forecasts

Abstract

The electoral studies of the recent years reveal discrepancies between the results of the opinion polls and the election results. The mismatch in forecasting the results of regional and municipal level elections is tremendous. Poor quality of the electoral forecasting is not only the Russian problem. Foreign sociologists who failed to give accurate forecasts also happen to be in the spotlight. Some of the recent examples are results of the Polish presidential elections, the Greek referendum, and the British parliamentary elections. In all these cases the faults of sociologists drew wide public discussion for a reason: poor quality election forecasting undermines public trust in surveys. The public do not perceive sociology as a reliable source of information about the public itself. The article presents the results of the project aimed at studying the American approaches towards electoral forecasting and includes a series of interviews with the largest American pollsters. The paper considers such questions as who forecasts the American elections and how the role of electoral forecasting is perceived in the research environment.