Влияние личных факторов на изменение стратегических намерений малых предпринимателей в условиях экзогенных шоков: анализ лонгитюдных данных
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2025.4.2815Ключевые слова:
малое предпринимательство, стратегия, мотивация, внешние шоки, лонгитюдАннотация
В статье анализируется влияние изменения мотивации и оценки условий для ведения бизнеса на стратегические намерения владельцев малого бизнеса в условиях внешних шоков. В качестве эмпирической основы используются данные Лонгитюда малого бизнеса ФОМ (начат в 2021 г., исходный N = 768 человек). Методология анализа строится на применении обобщенных моделей оценки (GEE) для полноценного учета эффектов панельных данных.
В результате исследования выявлено, что у большинства респондентов мотивация устойчива, хотя оценка ими внешней среды и результатов деятельности бизнеса демонстрирует слабую изменчивость. Смена мотивации как с добровольной на вынужденную, так и с вынужденной на добровольную не обязательно обусловлена изменением текущего дохода от бизнеса, но сильно связана с оценкой общей ситуации в экономике. Ухудшение последней может приводить к смене мотивации с добровольной на вынужденную, а улучшение — с вынужденной на добровольную. Изменение мотивации в обоих направлениях влияет на стратегические намерения предпринимателей, причем значительно сильнее — при негативном характере изменений (с добровольной мотивации на вынужденную). Увеличение дохода от бизнеса оказывает значительное положительное влияние на изменение стратегических намерений предпринимателей, а падение дохода — значимое отрицательное влияние. В работе впервые установлена связь между изменением стратегических намерений владельцев бизнеса и оценкой ими изменений условий ведения бизнеса, уровнем текущего дохода и образования владельцев.
Благодарность. Статья подготовлена в рамках проекта «Российское малое предпринимательство в условиях внешних шоков: динамика адаптации (лонгитюдное исследование)», поддержанного Центром фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ (2024). Авторы выражают также благодарность за замечания и предложения, которые были высказаны в ходе обсуждения предварительного варианта статьи на заседании ЛЭСИ НИУ ВШЭ в феврале 2025 г., в том числе оппоненту к.э.н. В.А. Бариновой (РАНХиГС).
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