Changing Political Polarization in the USA: Reasons for Change and Contributing Factors
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2026.1.3040Keywords:
political polarization, affective polarization, ideological polarization, USA parties, gender polarizationAbstract
Studies of political polarization in the United States have become one of the most important topics in contemporary political science over the past 15 years. This has been driven by the emergence and rapid growth of affective polarization, as well as new advances in the study of other forms of polarization. This study continues the existing trend in polarization research, attempting to link affective and ideological polarization. In addition to political polarization theory, social cleavage theory plays a significant role in this study. Divides between social groups can become factors that influence the growth of polarization in its various forms. Groups may be interested in different policy solutions to contentious issues or simply support different candidates, leading to increased affective polarization. Accordingly, identifying the influence of specific groups on the growth of political polarization in its various forms is the goal of this study.
In this research, 15 regression models were compiled, in which, based on data from five election cycles from 2004 to 2020, factors influencing the increase in political polarization were tested. The results have shown a close tendency of two types of political polarization — affective and positional — from each other. In addition, within the framework of responsibility, certain social groups are distinguished that are becoming more polarized than the rest of society, for example, for American women ideological positioning has changed significantly after the appearance of Donald Trump on the political arena. The main conclusion of this study was the close relationship between the affective and positional types of polarization, as well as the unstable, but always existing influence of a particular social group, such as race, gender, or level of education on the growth of polarization.
Acknowledgments. The publication was prepared within the framework of the Academic Fund Program at HSE University (grant №26-00-089 “Assessing the impact of domestic political polarization on the foreign policy of states and associations of the collective West in the medium and long term: challenges and opportunities for Russia and China”).
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