The Contribution of Migration Flows from the Cis Countries to the Economic Growth of Russia at the Present Stage
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2023.4.2397Keywords:
migration, Russia, CIS, economic growth, newly acquired territories, migration policyAbstract
Migration flows from the CIS countries to Russia in the face of sanctions pressure and the deterioration of the geopolitical situation are characterized by multidirectional dynamics, like the Russian migration legislation. The new territories of the Russian Federation also significantly change migration trends and affect the economy and demography of Russia. In this regard, the assessment of the contribution of these migration flows to the development of the Russian economy becomes an urgent task. This study systematizes approaches to assessing the impact of migration on the country's economy in the context of conflict-prone international relations and high social risks in a receiving country. In the empirical part, the authors, using the example of the Russian Federation, show that labor migration makes it possible to smooth out economic shocks, however, in the short and medium term, migrants from the CIS countries have a much greater influence on this process than citizens of the new territories; describe the prerequisites for increasing the migration flow in the Russian Federation in 2023–2024 and propose a system of measures to regulate migration, consisting of stimulating, restricting, and balancing components; test a model for assessing the contribution of migrants of various categories to Russia's GDP and show that the migration inflow will might allow this indicator to return to the pre-crisis level in 2024.
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