Effects of Period, Age and Cohort in the Dynamics of the Birth Rate in Russia in 1990-2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2023.2.2357Keywords:
APC models, fertility, Russia, age of childbearing, cohortsAbstract
This study estimates the influence of the age, period, and cohort effects on the dynamics of fertility in Russia. The study implements APC (age-period-cohort) models using annual macrodata on the number of children born by mothers of different age in 1990-2021. The author tests several methods to deal with the problem of identification in the APC models. The most adequate results are obtained using the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) and proxy variables approaches.
The findings show that age has an inverse U-shape effect which reaches its maximum by 21-24 years. Oil price is the most adequate proxy variable to reflect economic fluctuations and reveal period effects in observed fertility. The correlation between the obtained estimates of the period effects and the total fertility rate is 0.66, which indicates a significant relationship between fertility and events occurring every year when controlling for the effects of age and cohort. At the same time, the greatest contribution of period effects is observed in those years when they are amplified by cohort ones, for example, after the introduction of the federal maternity capital program in 2007. However, despite the positive period effects, since 2014 the data shows a decline in the birth rate in Russia, which is largely due to cohort and age effects.
Acknowledgements. The author thanks colleagues of the research working group on economic and mathematical modeling of economic processes at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, HSE University for valuable comments and remarks, and personally E.S. Mitrofanova for discussing the results at the initial stage of the study.
The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant No. 22-28-00952 “Study of the dynamics of fertility in Russia: an econometric approach”, https://rscf.ru/project/22-28-00952.
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