Socio-economic and socio-political formation aspects of protest potential in the region

Abstract

The article considers the dynamics of protest potential in the Vologda region in the period 2000 - 2013, and the factors that determine the protest mood. The study is conducted on the basis of regular monitoring conducted in the region. Multiyear sociological measurements reveal that from 2000 to 2013 the average protest potential of the Vologda region residents made up 23%. The risk groups where the protest potential exceeds the average regional figure are residents aged 30 to 55 years and over, those who represent 20% of persons with the lowest income, residing in Vologda and Cherepovets. The protests are strong among those residents of the region who assess negatively the socio-economic and political situation in the country and region as well as their financial income and who disapprove of the activities of the authorities and experience negative emotions. The correlation analysis reveals that the accumulation of latent protest activity is influenced by several groups of factors. Firstly, it is caused by the negative social and political attitudes related to the disapproval of the public authorities; secondly, the socio-economic indicators, reflecting dissatisfaction with the own financial situation and the general economic situation in the country and in the region; the third group of factors represent the social well-being of the population and includes social patience and emotional and psychological state of the population. It is proved that in different periods the impact of socio-political and socio-economic indicators on the formation of social moods is ambiguous. The analysis shows that given that the protest potential in the region is stable, though low, the main task of the authorities is to develop and make changes to the strategy of regional social policy to reduce social tension and to prevent evolving the hidden, latent discontent into unrest.