On Sociological Indices with Normal Distribution Law

Abstract

Indices expressed linearly through the shares of positive and negative answers of respondents are widely used in sociology. They are indices of social and consumer moods, the unemployment expectations index published by Levada Center, VCIOM’s social assessments indices. These indicators are also used in other fields (economy, health care, etc.). The normality of their distributions is an important issue in the analysis and forecasts as the methods of mathematical statistics are more effective and available when applied to normal variables.

The article puts forward and substantiates the hypothesis that indices have normal laws of distribution for those time intervals where they are quasi stationary. This manifests itself in the fact that the index’s seasonal component is absent and the index trend is (approximately) stationary. The results obtained can be used in preliminary assessments of sample sizes in surveys which, in turn, could reduce social monitoring costs.