Public Protest Potential as a Threat to National Territorial Security

Abstract

Social strain represents a potential threat to national security at the national level and can induce destructive forms of social interaction, conflicts, socio-political explosions, i.e. abrupt transition of latent protest moods into the open protest actions. One of the manifestations of social strain is the formation of the public protest potential referred to as an intention (propensity) of citizens to participate in protests. Institute of socio-economic development of territories (RAS) has been monitoring the major trends in region's population protest moods through regular monitoring of public opinion in Vologda region since 1996. It was revealed that the public protest potential in the Vologda region was 19% on the average in 2014. The risk groups involve residents of the region aged 30-55 and over, representatives of the poorest population which makes up 20%, and residents of Cherepovets. The protest potential among representatives of these categories exceeds the regional average. Long-term regular sociological studies show that the main determinants of potential protest activity in the region is negative social and political moods related to the disapproval of the authorities; socio-economic indicators reflecting dissatisfaction of the population with personal financial situation and the general economic situation in the country and the region; social well-being which includes social patience and emotional and psychological state of the population. Low but stable level of protest potential in the region establishes a certain reserve of "fuel" that poses a potential threat to national security at the regional level.