Effects of Period, Age and Cohort in the Dynamics of the Birth Rate in Russia in 1990-2021

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2023.2.2357

Keywords:

APC models, fertility, Russia, age of childbearing, cohorts

Abstract

This study estimates the influence of the age, period, and cohort effects on the dynamics of fertility in Russia. The study implements APC (age-period-cohort) models using annual macrodata on the number of children born by mothers of different age in 1990-2021. The author tests several methods to deal with the problem of identification in the APC models. The most adequate results are obtained using the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) and proxy variables approaches.

The findings show that age has an inverse U-shape effect which reaches its maximum by 21-24 years. Oil price is the most adequate proxy variable to reflect economic fluctuations and reveal period effects in observed fertility. The correlation between the obtained estimates of the period effects and the total fertility rate is 0.66, which indicates a significant relationship between fertility and events occurring every year when controlling for the effects of age and cohort. At the same time, the greatest contribution of period effects is observed in those years when they are amplified by cohort ones, for example, after the introduction of the federal maternity capital program in 2007. However, despite the positive period effects, since 2014 the data shows a decline in the birth rate in Russia, which is largely due to cohort and age effects.

Acknowledgements. The author thanks colleagues of the research working group on economic and mathematical modeling of economic processes at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, HSE University for valuable comments and remarks, and personally E.S. Mitrofanova for discussing the results at the initial stage of the study.

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant No. 22-28-00952 “Study of the dynamics of fertility in Russia: an econometric approach”, https://rscf.ru/project/22-28-00952.

Author Biography

Elena S. Vakulenko, HSE University

  • HSE University, Moscow, Russia
    • Dr. of Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Professor

References

Бобков В. Н. Влияние экономической активности и уровня жизни населения на рождаемость в современной России // Уровень жизни населения регионов России. 2011. № 8. С. 3-16.

Bobkov V. N. (2011) Influence of Economic Activity and the Standard of Living of the Population on the Birth Rate in Modern Russia. Level of Life of the Population of the Regions of Russia. No. 8. P. 3-16. (In Russ.)

Вакуленко Е. С., Ивашина Н. В., Свистильник Я. О. Исследование влияния программ регионального материнского капитала на рождаемость в регионах России // Экономика региона. 2023. (В печати.)

Vakulenko E.S., Ivashina N.V., Svistyilnik Y.O. (2023) Studing the Impact of the Regional Maternity Capital Programs on the Fertility in the Regions of Russia. Economy of Region. (In Press.) (In Russ.)

Голдстоун Дж., Шульгин С.Г., Коротаев А.В., Архангельский В.Н., Зинькина Ю.В, Новиков К.Е., Пустовалов Д.Н. Политическая демография России. Политика и государственное управление. М.: РАНХиГС, 2015. URL: https://www.readcube.com/articles/10.2139%2Fssrn.2624549 (дата обращения: 20.04.2023).

Goldstone J., Shulgin S.G., Korotaev A.V., Arkhangelskiy V.N., Zinkina Yu.V., Novikov K.E., Pustovalov D.N. (2015) Political Demography of Russia. Politics and State Government. Moscow: RANEPA. URL: https://www.readcube.com/articles/10.2139%2Fssrn.2624549 (accessed: 20.04.2023). (In Russ.)

Захаров С.В., Фрейка Т. Эволюция рождаемости в России за полвека: оптика условных и реальных поколений // Демографическое обозрение. 2014. Т. 1. № 1. С. 106-143. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v1i1.1828.

Zakharov S.V., Freika T. (2014) Evolution of the Birth Rate in Russia over Half a Century: Optics of Conditional and Real Generations. Demographic Review. Vol. 1. No. 1. P. 106-143. (In Russ.)

Петрякова О. Л. Основные тенденции динамики доходов семей в период экономического кризиса // Статистика и Экономика. 2016. № 5. С. 36–41. https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2016-5-36-41.

Petryakova O.L. (2016) The Main Trends of Dynamics of Incomes of Russians in Times of Economic Crisis. Statistics and Economics. Vol. 13. No. 5. P. 36-41. https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2016-5-36-41. (In Russ.)

Реэр Д. Экономические и социальные последствия демографического перехода (перевод с английского) // Демографическое обозрение. 2015. Т. 1. № 4. С. 41-67. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v1i4.1802.

Reher D. Economic and Social Implications of the Demographic Transition (translation from English). Demographic Review. Vol. 1. No. 4. P. 41-67. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v1i4.1802.

Adler M. A. (1997) Social Change and Declines in Marriage and Fertility in Eastern Germany. Journal of Marriage and the Family. Vol. 59. No. 1. P. 37–49. https://doi.org/10.2307/353660.

Becker G. S. (1960) An Economic Analysis of Fertility. In: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries. New York, NY: Columbia University Press. P. 209-240.

Bovi M. (2021) The Shapley Value of Age-period-cohort Effects. Journal of Applied Economics. Vol. 24. No. 1. P. 297–317. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2021.1932177.

Buckles K., Hungerman D., Lugauer S. (2021) Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator? The Economic Journal. Vol. 131. No. 634. P. 541-565. https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa068.

Butz W. P., Ward M. P. (1979) Will US Fertility Remain Low? A New Economic Interpretation. Population and Development Review. Vol. 5. No. 4. P. 663–688. https://doi.org/10.2307/1971976.

Conrad C., Lechner M., Werner W. (1996) East German Fertility After Unification: Crisis or Adaptation? Population and Development Review. Vol. 22. No. 2. P. 331–358. https://doi.org/10.2307/2137438

Dinas E., Stoker L. (2014) Age-Period-Cohort analysis: A design-based approach. Electoral Studies. Vol. 33. P. 28-40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.06.006.

Easterlin R. A. (1961) The American Baby Boom in Historical Perspective. American Economic Review. Vol. 51. No. 5. P. 869–911. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1813841.

Easterlin R. A. (1978) What Will 1984 Be Like? Socioeconomic Implications of Recent Twists in Age Structure. Demography. Vol. 15. No. 4. P. 397—421. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061197.

Engelhardt H., Kögel T., Prskawetz A. (2004) Fertility and Women’s Employment Reconsidered: A Macro-Level Time-Series Analysis for Developed Countries, 1960–2000. Population Studies. Vol. 58. No. 1. P. 109–120. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472032000167715.

Fosse E., Winship C. (2019) Analyzing Age-Period-Cohort Data: A Review and Critique. Annual Review of Sociology. Vol. 45. No. 1. P. 467–492. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-073018-022616.

Frantsuz Y., Ponarin E. (2020) The Impact of Societal Instability on Demographic Behavior (The Case of Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia). Population Research and Policy Review. Vol. 39. P. 1087–1117. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-020-09595-7.

Frejka T. (2008) Overview Chapter 5: Determinants of Family Formation and Childbearing During the Societal Transition in Central and Eastern Europe. Demographic Research. Vol. 19. P. 139–170.

Frejka T., Zakharov S. (2013) The Apparent Failure of Russia’s Pronatalist Family Policies. Population and Development Review. Vol. 39. No. 4. P. 635–647. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00631.x.

Fukuda K. (2008) Age–Period–Cohort Decomposition of U.S. and Japanese Birth Rates. Population Research and Policy Review. Vol. 27. P. 385–402. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-008-9074-9.

Galbraith V. L., Thomas D. S. (1941) Birth Rates and the Interwar Business Cycles. Journal of the American Statistical Association. Vol. 36. No. 216. P. 465–476.

Kharkova T. L., Andreev E. M. (2000) Did the Economic Crisis Cause the Fertility Decline in Russia: Evidence from the 1994 Microcensus. European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie. Vol. 16. No. 3. P. 211-233. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026539832229.

Kohler H.-P., Kohler I. (2002) Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises. European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie. Vol. 18. No. 3. P. 233-262. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019701812709.

Kohlmann A., Zuev S. M. (2001) Patterns of Childbearing in Russia 1994 — 1998. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Rostock. Germany. No. WP-2001-018.

Kye B. (2012) Cohort Effects or Period Effects? Fertility Decline in South Korea in the Twentieth Century. Population Research and Policy Review. Vol. 31. P. 387–415. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-012-9232-y.

Lan M., Kuang Y. (2021) Evolutionary Trends in Fertility Among Chinese Women, 1990–2015. Reproductive Health. Vol. 18. P. 64. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12978-021-01120-z.

Lee R. (1990) The Demographic Response to Economic Crisis in Historical and Contemporary Populations. Population bulletin of the United Nations. Vol. 29. P. 1–15.

Lesthaeghe R. (1991) The Second Demographic Transition in Western Countries: An Interpretation. In: Interuniversity Programme in Demography. Oxford. Clarendon Press. P. 1–62.

Macunovich D. J. (1996) Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring Their Effects on US Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation. Population and Development Review. Vol. 22. P. 223–257. https://doi.org/10.2307/2808013.

Mason K. O., Mason W. M., Winsborough H. H., Poole W. K. (1972) Some Methodological Issues in Cohort Analysis of Archival Data. American Sociological Review. Vol. 38. No. 2. P. 242-258. https://doi.org/10.2307/2094398.

Örsal D., Goldstein J. (2010) The Increasing Importance of Economic Conditions on Fertility. Rostock. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. No WP-2010-014.

Okun A. M. (1962) Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance. In: Proceedings of the Business

and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association. Reprinted in Cowles Foundation, Yale University.

Pampel F.C., Peters H.E. (1995) The Easterlin Effect. Annual Review of Sociology. Vol. 21. No. 1. P. 163–194.

Pearl J. (2000) Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Reher D.S. (2011). Economic and Social Implications of the Demographic Transition. In: Lee R. D., Reher D. S. (eds.) Demographic Transition and Its Consequences. A supplement to Vol. 37 (2011) of Population and Development Review. P. 11-33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00376.x

Silver M. (1965) Births, Marriages, and Business Cycles in the United States. Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 73. No. 3. P. 237–255.

Sobotka T., Skirbekk V., Philipov D. (2011) Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World. Population and Development Review. Vol. 37. No. 2. P. 267–306. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00411.x.

Tzeng I-S., Chen K.-H., Lee Y.L., Yang W.-S. (2019) Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effects of Fertility Rate: Analysis of 26224 Married Women in Taiwan. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. Vol. 16. No. 24. P. 4952. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16244952.

Van de Kaa D.J. (1987) Europe’s Second Demographic Transition. Population Bulletin. Vol. 42. No. 1. P. 1–59.

Winship C., Harding D. (2008) A Mechanism-Based Approach to the Identification of Age Period Cohort Models. Sociological Methods and Research. Vol. 36 No. 3, P. 362–401. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124107310635.

Wrong D. H. (1958) Trends in Class Fertility in Western Nations. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science. Vol. 24. No. 2. P. 216–229. https://doi.org/10.2307/138769.

Yang Y., Fu W. J., Land K.C. (2004) A Methodological Comparison of Age-Period-Cohort Models: The Intrinsic Estimator and Conventional Generalized Linear Models. Sociological Methodology. Vol. 34. No. 1. P. 75–110. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0081-1750.2004.00148.x.

Yang Y., Land K.C. (2008) Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys: Fixed or Random Effects? Sociological Methods & Research. Vol. 36. No. 3. P. 297–326. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124106292360.

Yang Y., Land K.C. (2013) Age-Period-Cohort Analysis: New Models, Methods, and Empirical Applications. New York, NY: Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.1201/b13902.

Zakharov S.V., Ivanova E.I. (1996) Fertility Decline and Recent Changes in Russia: On the Threshold of the Second Demographic Transition. In: DaVanzo J. (ed.) Russia's Demographic “Crisis”. Santa Monica, CA: RAND. P. 36-82.

Zaman K., Beaujon E., Brzozowska Z., Sobotka T. (2018) Cohort Fertility Decline in Low Fertility Countries: Decomposition Using Parity Progression Ratios. Demographic Research. Vol. 38. No. 25. P. 651–690.

Published

2023-05-08

How to Cite

Vakulenko Е. С. (2023). Effects of Period, Age and Cohort in the Dynamics of the Birth Rate in Russia in 1990-2021. Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes, (2). https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2023.2.2357