Тренды разводимости в семи странах в течение продолжительного транзита от государственного социализма: 1981―2004 гг. Вступ. слово и пер. с англ. В.В. Солодникова
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2023.2.2295Ключевые слова:
развод, Центральная и Восточная Европа, социальное изменение, переход от коммунизма к рыночной экономике, анализ наступления событийАннотация
Крах коммунизма ― геополитическое событие в Европе конца XX века с хорошо документированными экономическими, социальными и политическими последствиями. Однако до сих пор отсутствуют исследования того, как оно повлияло на уровень разводов. Целью нашей работы является анализ трендов, связанных с уровнем разводов в течение длительного перехода от коммунизма ― начавшегося с упадка коммунистической экономики в 1980-х годах и закончившегося экономическим возрождением, ― в семи странах: Болгарии, Эстонии, Венгрии, Литве, Польше, Румынии и России. Мы обсуждаем, мог ли этот переход увеличить или уменьшить риск развода. Мы анализируем ретроспективные данные микроуровня, касающиеся первых браков, из базы исследования «Изменение режимов жизненного цикла в Восточной Европе» (Changing Life Course Regimes in Eastern Europe ― CLiCR). Основываясь на анализе истории наступления событий (event-history analyses), мы выявили, что на определенном этапе этого длительного перехода уровень разводов вырос во всех странах. Однако это увеличение не может быть объяснено структурным изменением. Нами не было обнаружено и единого паттерна увеличения риска развода по времени и продолжительности. Поразительная вариабельность данных приводит нас к выводу, что даже последствия крупных социальных разрывов контекстуально опосредованы.
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