Qualitative sociological study and forecasting: “Is impossible possible?”
Keywords:forecasting, extrapolation methods, mass behavior, qualitative and quantitative approaches, limited opportunities, emotions, combination of methods
AbstractThe article describes the use of the results of qualitative studies to predict mass behavior applying the extrapolation technique. Limited possibilities of the classical sociology to implement the prediction function this way are analyzed in detail. The author concludes that it is impossible to use purely qualitative data to make predictions on methodological grounds mentioned in the paper (interpretative character of the obtained knowledge, its communicative nature, and fundamental incompleteness). The author proposes a consecutive combination of methodological approaches (qualitative and quantitative) in forecasting mass behavior using the extrapolation technique.
THEORY AND METHODOLOGY